Predicted Strongest El Niño Since 1950 with Droughts and Flooding

TLDR

• A very strong El Niño is predicted to occur this year, potentially the strongest since 1950, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM).
• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for July was reported at -29.1, indicating significant warming in the central tropical Pacific, which is characteristic of El Niño events.
• The SOI reading is the lowest in four decades, increasing the likelihood of a strong El Niño in 2026-2027, which could lead to severe droughts and flooding in Africa.
• Southern Africa and parts of the Sahel are identified as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of this El Niño, which may affect agricultural output and economic growth.
• Oxford Economics Africa warns that while some areas may have had good harvests recently, the overall humanitarian and economic impacts could be severe.