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Potential Economic Risks for Africa Due to El Niño

Latest Tanzania economy news · Potential Economic Risks for Africa Due to El Niño explained · 2027 updates · updated Aug 20, 2026 · economy news · GDP · investment

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TLDR

  • A very strong El Niño is predicted to occur this year, potentially the strongest since 1950, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM).
  • The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for July was reported at -29.1, indicating significant El Niño conditions, as sustained readings below -7 signify its presence.
  • Oxford Economics Africa warns that the upcoming El Niño could lead to droughts and flooding across Africa, negatively impacting agricultural output and economic growth.
  • The 2026/2027 El Niño is expected to bring extreme weather conditions, including heat and drought in some regions and severe flooding in others.
  • Southern Africa and parts of the Sahel are identified as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of this El Niño event.

Latest news excerpts & sources: Potential Economic Risks for Africa Due to El Niño

dailynews.co.tzRead more

The latest monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reading for July has fallen to its lowest level in four decades, increasing the likelihood that the El Niño in 2026–2027 could rank among the strongest on record. This poses significant risks for Africa, where drought and flooding could reduce agricultural output and weigh on economic growth.

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