Expected Weakened Economic Growth Prospects in Sahel, Southern, and East Africa
Latest Tanzania economy news · Expected Weakened Economic Growth Prospects in Sahel, S… explained · updated Aug 20, 2026 · economy news · GDP · investment
TLDR
- A very strong El Niño is predicted to occur this year, potentially the strongest since 1950, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM).
- The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for July was reported at -29.1, indicating significant El Niño conditions, as sustained readings below -7 signify its presence.
- Oxford Economics Africa warns that the upcoming El Niño could lead to droughts and flooding, negatively impacting agricultural output and economic growth in Africa.
- The 2026/2027 El Niño is expected to bring extreme weather conditions, including heat and drought in some regions and severe flooding in others.
- Southern Africa and parts of the Sahel are identified as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of this El Niño event.