Tier-1 banks
Core compounder
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+80% … +180%
Past observation (member median)
+656% · +97%–+935% · n=3
Backed by member trailing 5Y median (~+656.4%, range 97.0% to 934.6%, n=3). Forward charge is a haircut of that re-rating: earnings can still compound, but 2021–26 multiple expansion is unlikely to repeat in full.
Scale franchises with digital mix and dividends. Earnings matter more than another multi-bagger re-rating from here.
Risks: Rich valuations vs history; credit cycle; NPL creep.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Telco / digital
Core compounder
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+25% … +90%
Past observation (member median)
+34% · +34%–+34% · n=1
Backed by VODA trailing 5Y (~+33.8%) and stronger recent 1Y. Charge sits above the muted 5Y print but below compounding the latest 1Y for five years.
M-Pesa and data look durable if ARPU and regulation stay constructive; only listed telco scarcity.
Risks: Tax/regulatory shocks; heavy network capex.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Industrials / cement / gases
Cyclical / theme
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+40% … +150%
Past observation (member median)
+189% · +54%–+716% · n=4
Backed by member trailing 5Y median (~+189.1%, 53.8%–716.3%, n=4). Charge assumes infra/cement demand continues with a haircut vs the past re-rating.
Volume upside if SGR, housing and infra pipelines hold; TCCL cleaner after rights issue.
Risks: Overcapacity, input costs, aviation/fuel shocks for SWIS.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Consumer staples
Income / carry
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+5% … +40%
Past observation (member median)
-9% · -26%–+51% · n=3
Backed by member trailing 5Y (median ~-9.3%, range -26.4%–51.1%, n=3). Charge is income/dividend-led, not bank-style capital gain.
Cash cows — dividends and modest growth rather than bank-style re-rating.
Risks: Excise, ESG/tobacco regulation, consumer squeeze.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Investment companies / exchange
Needs proof
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+30% … +120%
Past observation (member median)
+253% · +15%–+1,464% · n=4
Backed by member trailing 5Y median (~+252.7%, 14.6%–1,464.0%, n=4). Huge past gains already baked in; charge needs NAV/turnover growth, not another full re-rating.
Levered to market depth and listed holdings; huge trailing 5Y already baked into some names.
Risks: NAV opacity, discount, volume mean-reversion.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Cross-lists & challenged
Challenged
Potential gain charge (5Y)
-30% … +40%
Past observation (member median)
-21% · -78%–+44% · n=5
Backed by member trailing 5Y median (~-21.3%, -77.5%–43.8%, n=5). Charge spans further drawdown to modest recovery — observation is weak.
Need a clear turnaround; thin DSE interest or primary-market drag.
Risks: Illiquidity; binary airline/media outcomes.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
VIS-ETF (TZ banks / investment)
Structural product
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+40% … +120%
Past observation (member median)
+49% · +49%–+49% · n=1
No full ETF 5Y yet; charge tempered from VIS since-inception (~+49.3%) and the trailing 5Y of underlying TZ banks/investment names. Forward path depends on AUM and holdings earnings, not repeating the IPO re-rating.
Equal-weight CRDB, NMB, DSE, NICO, AFRIPRISE — productised TZ market beta. 5Y potential is high if holdings compound and creation/redemption stays healthy; IPO was retail-led.
Risks: Holding concentration in the same bank/investment rally; creation/redemption friction; AUM growth must continue.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
iEACLC-ETF (EAC large-cap)
Structural product
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+30% … +100%
Past observation (member median)
+29% · +29%–+29% · n=1
No full ETF 5Y yet; charge tempered from iEACLC since-inception (~+29.1%) and EAC large-cap mix. Wider Kenya/FX risk vs pure TZ VIS.
EAC large-cap basket — TZ banks plus Kenya telco/banks when those markets work. More geographically diversified than VIS; potential tracks cross-border blue-chips.
Risks: Cross-border FX; Kenya market cycles; thinner secondary vs VIS.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Equity / balanced funds
Structural product
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+50% … +150%
Past observation (member median)
+71% · +71%–+71% · n=1
No full fund 5Y yet; backed by iGrowth ~+70.6% 1Y and the DSE bank/industrial 5Y observation that the sleeve holds. Charge is tempered vs repeating 1Y five times.
Multi-year participation in banks/industrials with bond ballast — unlikely to repeat ~70% every year.
Risks: Manager risk; fees; underlying liquidity.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Money market / income / Shariah
Income / carry
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+40% … +90%
Past observation (member median)
+13% · -1%–+21% · n=8
Backed by member trailing 1Y median (~+13.2%, n=8). Five-year charge ≈ compounding similar carry (~8–13% / yr range discussion), not equity re-rating.
Carry and ballast while equity multiples digest; mid-single to low-teens annualised is a discussion range, not a promise.
Risks: Rate cuts compress yields; credit events in papers.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Listed bonds / sukuk
Income / carry
Potential gain charge (5Y)
+50% … +80%
Price returns not in offers yet; charge backed by published coupon class on infra/sukuk programmes (~low-teens annual), observed as income over a 5Y hold.
Coupon ± price if yields fall; aligns with longer-term patient capital narrative.
Risks: Duration/credit; thin secondary; judge from prospectus.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21
Thinly traded
Thin trading
Past observation (member median)
+408% · +317%–+500% · n=2
Trailing prints are extreme on illiquid names (median 5Y ~+408.3%) — not used as a planning charge.
Quotes are scarce — treat large % moves carefully; they may not be investable at size.
Risks: Wide spreads and print gaps; hard to enter or exit meaningfully.
Analysis as of 2026-08-21